Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 10.058134 11.802502 13.709364 15.942041 18.477619 21.260642 24.539129
2025-01-19 7.121496 9.428443 12.208290 15.773803 20.191593 25.449534 32.140928
2025-01-26 5.820571 8.522572 12.049137 16.913261 23.361023 31.519019 42.510109
2025-02-02 4.810648 7.700242 11.743379 17.675591 25.993511 37.055751 52.655731
2025-02-09 4.055255 7.035120 11.471108 18.340422 28.446774 42.463554 62.992753
2025-02-16 3.317913 6.224447 10.816291 18.297416 29.804833 46.387404 71.516772
2025-02-23 2.659712 5.392732 9.969390 17.799251 30.361567 49.123010 78.463313
2025-03-02 2.107093 4.618289 9.072857 17.064653 30.414662 51.037272 84.250972
2025-03-09 1.765542 4.154805 8.618883 16.972257 31.427086 54.417221 92.387370
2025-03-16 1.460047 3.692712 8.086728 16.657669 32.006779 57.114434 99.589566
2025-03-23 1.339919 3.590762 8.207033 17.509048 34.615676 63.207054 112.467336
2025-03-30 1.168573 3.337266 7.989038 17.695678 36.057471 67.450895 122.583248
2025-04-06 0.995747 3.048755 7.671175 17.682757 37.194067 71.353987 132.548510
2025-04-13 0.850850 2.794560 7.387306 17.705327 38.404000 75.479919 143.171234
2025-04-20 0.815944 2.820763 7.725787 19.036743 42.195809 84.348621 162.334564
2025-04-27 0.752888 2.754211 7.840673 19.905997 45.157513 91.910777 179.631623
2025-05-04 0.689003 2.669072 7.897186 20.650730 47.924648 99.272262 196.937952
2025-05-11 0.593014 2.459546 7.614404 20.606258 49.090432 103.752624 209.354839
2025-05-18 0.489537 2.192841 7.137984 20.055885 49.155176 106.162586 218.150657
2025-05-25 0.393608 1.917075 6.583283 19.242662 48.577966 107.290792 224.631054
2025-06-01 0.337042 1.763885 6.336548 19.140410 49.512653 111.377503 236.765177
2025-06-08 0.281799 1.594369 6.009471 18.791850 49.864601 114.321938 246.874354
2025-06-15 0.267411 1.590058 6.176740 19.735063 53.196860 123.393341 269.036700